CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-10-01T23:09:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-10-01T23:09ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33659/-1
CME Note: Developing CME with bulk seen predominantly to the southeast in early frames with a very faint, oval-shaped/asymmetric halo shock portion, associated with an X7.1-class flare and associated eruption from AR3842 (S17E18). Coronal signatures include an EUV wave and large-scale dimming in SDO 171/193 with magnetic field line movement off the southern and southeast limbs and dimming of footpoints bridging the Active Region 3842 (S17E18) in GOES 284. [PRELIMINARY] closed out a non-arrival.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-10-04T22:35Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 594.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v3 Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4] u_r = 368.142 Acceleration: 1.61586 Duration in seconds: 257166.22 Duration in days: 2.9764609 t2 is negative ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: 1.62 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 783.7 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 04/10/2024 Time: 22:35 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 55.17 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2024-10-02T15:25Z
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